The first quarter of the new year is over and we are happy to share the quarterly portfolio performance with you as usual.
Performance wise, the picture has not changed much since the last update; around 75 % of the amount disbursed in the last four years by the current providers* has been fully repaid, 22 % is being repaid on time, 1 % is being repaid late, and net defaults are still kept below 2 %. In terms of volume, this quarter has been slower than the previous two with close to 830,000 euro disbursed. It is worth noting, however, that although the growth trend from last year did not continue, this is still the third best quarter in three years when looking at amount disbursed.
Portfolio Performance – current providers (click to enlarge)
The Portfolio Performance Graph above shows the performance of loans disbursed since 2010 divided by quarter of disbursement. The colour blue shows funds that have already been repaid, green shows amounts that are being repaid on time, yellow indicates the balances on loans that are currently more than 30 days late, while red shows the net defaulted principal (i.e. defaulted principal less recoveries).
In relation to the profit & loss, investors have been affected by the weakening of the East African currencies relative to the Euro over the last 6 months which has translated into significant currency losses, especially on loans disbursed in the third quarter of 2012. These losses have nevertheless been covered by interest earned and a good portion of the loans is still outstanding (i.e. the net currency effects may still change). The new currency losses are reflected in the overall result as the the net return is now positive at 1.5 % on loans disbursed by the current providers in the last four years, down from 1.7 % in the previous quarter.
Profit & Loss – current providers (click to enlarge)
The Profit & Loss graph above shows the current result on loans disbursed since 2010 divided by quarter of disbursement. The colour green shows the earned interest, the red indicates the net defaults (i.e. defaulted principal less recoveries), and the purple shows the net realised currency gains or losses.
For loans disbursed in 2013, there have so far been very minimal currency effects. As can be seen from the graphs below, the three main East African currencies started depreciating relative to the Euro around August last year and continued to do so until February 2013. Over the last two months, however, they have started strengthening again. In 2011, the shillings went through a somewhat similar development which was described in more detail in the blog posts As the Shillings Slide… and The Recovery of the Shilling, but the extent and implications of the slide in 2011 by far exceeded the recent developments (e.g. the Kenyan shilling was at 146 shs to 1 euro at its worst in November 2011 compared to 121 in February 2013). Remember that all currencies are updated on a weekly basis on MYC4 and can be found on the country pages.
Kenya shilling (KES) relative to the Euro
Ugandan shilling (UGX) relative to the Euro
Tanzanian shilling (TZS) relative to the Euro
While MYC4′s total outstanding loan balance (OLB) grew steadily each quarter in 2012, the OLB remained stable in the first quarter of 2013, closing at 2.25 million euro in more than 4300 active loans. The country concentration has shifted slightly so that Kenya now holds the majority of the portfolio (41%) with Uganda as a close second (37%) and Tanzania growing its significance slowly (now at 16%). The portfolio at risk above 30 days (PAR30) remains below the 5 % target which it has been for five consecutive quarters now.
* Current Providers: GrowthAfrica, Gatsby Microfinance Ltd, Micro Africa Ltd, Premier Resource Consulting, Tujijenge Tanzania, Fusion Capital Ltd, Makao Mashinani Ltd, Tujijenge Uganda, BELITA, KEEF, Yehu Microfinance Trust, SISDO, Fanikiwa Microfinance Company Ltd., and Mtaji Credit Facility Ltd.
